Wednesday, 20 May 2020
A Death
My partner and I have separate homes; mine is a cottage in the country, hers is one of four apartments in a small conversion. For the duration of the COVID-19 'lockdown' she has been living full time at my place but visits her apartment while out food shopping to get her mail and phone her friends and relatives. She had not seen any of her neighbours during her intermittent visits to her home until yesterday, 19/05, eight weeks after lockdown had started when she met a new neighbour who was renting one of the apartments. It was then that she heard that her upstairs neighbour had hanged himself two weeks into the lockdown.
Tuesday, 12 May 2020
COVID-19 R and more (13/05 update)
28/05 - Apologies for the font size ... it happened when I switched to the new blogger format!
In the earlier post on Life in the Time of Corona, I remarked that some calculations (back of envelope stuff) were probably simplistic and since then I have been trying to catch up a little with my understanding of the R number. I have edited the section in my earlier blog post but thought it might be useful to put the bare bones of R here, as well. As before, I shall update this as more information becomes available. I'm also expanding this post to cover some other biological aspects of COVID-19.
R0 and R (my own understanding)
The R number is a shorthand method of estimating viral contagion. In order to spread, the virus must reproduce itself in the host and then be transmitted to another host. If it cannot transmit itself to more than one new host the contagion cannot take hold. Where a population is completely susceptible (as in a novel disease, such as COVID-19) the basic reproduction number is given by R0. For contagion to happen R0 must be greater than 1. The higher the R0, the more contagious the virus is (measles R0 is often cited as being between 12 and 18). Once there is some immunity in a population R0 becomes R, the effective reproduction number, which is less than R0. Separately, by lessening the susceptibility of the population (e.g. by social distancing) R can be manipulated and further reduced. The combination of the two processes can lessen R to less than 1 and the contagion be halted. This is 'herd immunity'.
Initially, R0 for COVID-19 was put at 2-3, which with 60% immunity reduces R to between 0.8 and 1.2. However, as knowledge about COVID-19 increases, so it seems does its R0 value. One estimate is that R0 is nearer 5.7 which requires 82% immunity to reduce the R figure to ~1 [The calculation is R = R0 x, where x is the % susceptibility].
Potential Deaths in the UK
Even while R0 was regarded as 2-3, it was the 500,000 deaths that made Johnson suddenly drop 'herd immunity'. Now, if a 1% mortality rate of 60% of the population results in 500,000 deaths, for 82% this would rise to over 680,000.
Mortality Rate
Above I used Neil Ferguson's figure for mortality rate. This figure will need updating but WHO as of 3/03 were estimating a rate of 3.4% globally. Comparing mortality rates is hugely difficult as most are co-morbidities with other health issues, such as compromised immune systems. Also, while most mortality may be indirect there are concerns that there may be direct effects as well (see Cause of Death, below). The finding that BAME deaths are disproportionately higher than in the general populace puts a spotlight on the inequalities in society.
Immunity
There is still little information on immunity - its quality and longevitiy.
Cause of Death
Early on in the pandemic, it was considered that the major effect of COVID-19 was to create a 'cytokine storm' in the patient's immune system, leading to sepsis and organ failure. This is now being questioned as the virus seems to have direct effects in some cases. Additionally, the possibility of evolution of the virus (SARS-CoV-2) itself could be a concern.
SARS-CoV-2 Evolution
There is clear evidence from genetic marker studies that the virus has a zoonotic origin, with indication that bats may provide a reservoir of the progenitor which this study (with Rhinolophus affinis as the bat species) indicates may have involved pangolin as an intermediate.
Random Notes
1. How does a virus transmit from bats to pangolins? ... faecal matter; and are the pangolins diseased? ... yes (in this article)
2. The pangolins coronavirus (Pangolin‐CoVs) was found in sick pangolins in October 2019 at the Guangdong Wildlife Rescue Center (+800 km from Wuhan). Could the 'wet market' at Wuhan be a mistaken epicentre for the disease?
3. Also could the pathogenicity of the virus have increased through mutation within a human host? The question is raised here as one of two scenarios.
Food - Sorrel and Mushroom Soup
The soup making continues. Using the same basic ingredients as for the nettle soup, in roughly the same proportions, I used French sorrel which I grow mainly for sorrel mayonnaise to have with salmon. I've had the plant in the garden for many years in the garden and it needed digging up and dividing. Two years ago, using a pickaxe, I dug it up,split it and moved some of the now separate plants to a damp area where water drains from the patio. There was enough leaf to harvest this year:
Colander full of sorrel leaves - washed, mid-rib removed and chopped;
Three small potatoes peeled and cut small;
Two small carrots peeled and cut small;
While these were cooking with one chicken stock gel in 750 ml water,
One medium size banana shallot finely chopped and softened in about 50g butter;
Then in same pan, six chestnut mushrooms (only because they needed eating) chopped small and fried in a little sunflower oil. These were then added to the mix above and cooked until the potato and carrot were soft. Celery salt was added to taste and then the sorrel added and cooked for a no more than five minutes before blending with a stick blender. A little cream stirred in and the soup was sprinkled with parmesan.
The soup was not as intensely green as the nettle soup, but the flavour is more refined and the parmesan finished it perfectly.
Colander full of sorrel leaves - washed, mid-rib removed and chopped;
Three small potatoes peeled and cut small;
Two small carrots peeled and cut small;
While these were cooking with one chicken stock gel in 750 ml water,
One medium size banana shallot finely chopped and softened in about 50g butter;
Then in same pan, six chestnut mushrooms (only because they needed eating) chopped small and fried in a little sunflower oil. These were then added to the mix above and cooked until the potato and carrot were soft. Celery salt was added to taste and then the sorrel added and cooked for a no more than five minutes before blending with a stick blender. A little cream stirred in and the soup was sprinkled with parmesan.
The soup was not as intensely green as the nettle soup, but the flavour is more refined and the parmesan finished it perfectly.
Sunday, 10 May 2020
My Original Flickr Profile
When I first joined flickr I wrote a long and detailed profile that very few people read and in July of 2019 I stripped it out and replaced it with a shorter description. I was reading my friend Sue's blog in which she describes well the cruel nature of our developing in a society not sufficiently equipped to allow our individual gender expression and how we may then behave in response. It reminded me of that profile and having searched in vain for it on my current laptop I was spurred to dig out my previous laptop which has been languishing since an update of W10 caused it to become virtually unusable. Now I can clean it out and load a linux OS instead.
Onto the history recorded in the profile ...
BORING
HISTORY (Jungian terms in italics)
Some
Jungian cod-psychology (mine) suggests (rightly or wrongly) how this may have
arisen in my youth. As a child up until encounters outside the family, I was
quite extroverted; this changed with socialisation, which I didn’t manage well
– I was torn between an exaggerated male behaviour and a need to be treated as
a girl. My shadow started to gain expression. By my teenage years, the shadow
was in command and I was buried in deep depression. This was eased by dressing,
but also confused by its meaning. Sexual excitement and subsequent
self-loathing simply reinforced any lack of self-worth.
School
was awful – I performed poorly in almost every aspect, yet that was not from
lack of intelligence, more that I found school and its teachings facile (my shadow
speaking). Leaving school, and contrary to my teachers’ predictions, I threw
myself into academic studies. These gave the lie to my poor performance at
school. Acknowledgement of academic achievement helped the process of enantiodromia
and re-balancing of my persona. It was by no means perfect. My dressing, the
outward expression of a strong anima was just about manageable. My animus
hid itself in alcohol. I could cope, but life was still marked by very dark and
irrational episodes.
EMERGENCE
In my
fifties, I visited a dressing service and my life changed forever. My anima
finally found its rightful place which, in turn, helped my animus be
brave in ‘letting go’ the false manhood that I had busily constructed since
childhood. All round, life improved. While my emulation of women developed, I
also realised that being transgendered had an advantage – I could play
‘dress-up’ within my female presentation and reclaim some of my lost female
youth; likewise I could experiment with androgyny – a far more dangerous and
potentially powerful state.
NOWADAYS
Quite a
few of my pictures were taken at my friend Barbara's, in Folkestone. She used
to run the makeup parlour I first went to and has helped many girls gain
confidence in themselves. Together we ran SouthCoast Crossdressing, an MSN
Group. With MSN closing their groups some years back, the growth (albeit still
tiny) of the TG presence in society, and the changing face of the internet,
groups we have tried to keep going are now moribund and will be closed soon.
Although
I do get out and about occasionally, most of my dressing is at home. I don’t
get that buzz that some transgendered do from ‘mixing it’ at Bluewater and so
on, but that just reflects my personality – I’ve very much a home person no
matter which gender I’m presenting.
I love
clothes and buy far too many, but I'm not into labels, just things which seem
right for me at the time. I'm equally happy expressing the butch as the femme
and in 2010 took on sweet lolita cosplay as well as floaty maxi-dresses. In
2011 dirndls and sissy satin dresses have been added, just because they're
there! One of the great things about being transgender is breaking away from
stereotypes. Why should age dictate what one wears, anymore than gender?
BITS AND
PIECES
Some of the following is not relevant, but I keep it in as a record (italics and small font).
An update
from 27 August 12 ... I have a mix of photos on this site, showing off serious
clothes, playful clothes, sensuous clothes and plain silly clothes, so it is a
really pleasant surprise to find that the first (by a long way) photo to get
over a 1000 views is one of my favourite dirndl portraits!
Stats ...
for what it matters ... thanks for all the views, 100,000 as of 2/10/12
Update
23/10/12 - I am going through my contact and changing some levels of contact;
welcome those who can now see my 'friends' pictures; for those who now can't
... well you've never been that interested ;-)
Update
31/12/12 - In this last year, it is evident that flickr can be greater than the
sum of its parts and I have been privileged to make new friends who have seen
that there is something more to me than an endless succession of new dresses! I
think 2013 is going to be fun!
A short
update for August 2014 - I am organising my picture collections and albums, a
task that may never get finished.
A bit
more, now we are in 2016: the more important things slowly come onto this
flickr account. I have loved travelling through Europe since the late 1960's
and have an abiding interest in landscapes, plants and history. Images relating
to these interests intersperse my transgender pictures, if they bore, then I
probably do!
Coming
towards the end of 2016, I am slowly re-arranging things. Flickr is a
repository of images and memories. I choose to share these with the world, but
if the world does not respect them, I can either delete the image or the
commentator.
W B Yeats
wrote -
I have
spread my dreams under your feet;
Tread
softly because you tread on my dreams.
On 28
June 2017, my dearest friend Barbara died. It was she who freed Nikki, yet was
herself trapped by abuse from childhood on. Barbara underwent life-saving
surgery 18 months ago ... but that's all it was. Her quality of life
deteriorated severely in the last year and she wanted peace and freedom from
pain. It is at a time like this I desire there to be a heaven, somewhere for
her to enjoy eternal love.
It is now
August 2018 and, as I understand mourning, my loss of Barbara has taken a year
to ease. During that time friends have been kind and welcoming and I have
started to reforge an earlier relationship but all through that period it has
been as if Barbara was looking on and making sure I walked in light rather than
shadow. END
So there it is. The last two paragraphs came as a surprise when I refound this profile and affected me deeply.
Food - Nettle Soup
I like to eat and I like to cook. When I was very young my mother instilled in me a love of cooking and of plants ... if only she had let me wear a dress as well.
For years I've been meaning to cook both sorrel soup and nettle soup. We used to see the Turkish gastarbeiter collecting nettles on waste land under the autobahn bridge at Offenbach in the Spring. We didn't think much about it until one time we went to Schloss Vollrads for some fancy wine and they were having nettle day, with nettle soup and, I think, cheese wrapped in nettle leaves (I need to check that as I may have confused it with Yarg). We still have the recipe leaflet somewhere. Today is the day, finally ... I've picked and cleaned nettle leaves and have followed Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall's recipe.
This is basic nettle soup: large onion cut small and softened in 50g butter, then added to a large potato in small cubes and a large carrot likewise in 1 litre of stock (I used two chicken 'stockpots') and enough washed nettle leaves (no stalks) to almost fill the pot (probably about 750g wet leaves). The mix was simmered until the carrot and potato was soft and then chopped with a stick blender.
My French sorrel is growing well and that will be next now that I've taken my large stewpot out of the cupboard.
For years I've been meaning to cook both sorrel soup and nettle soup. We used to see the Turkish gastarbeiter collecting nettles on waste land under the autobahn bridge at Offenbach in the Spring. We didn't think much about it until one time we went to Schloss Vollrads for some fancy wine and they were having nettle day, with nettle soup and, I think, cheese wrapped in nettle leaves (I need to check that as I may have confused it with Yarg). We still have the recipe leaflet somewhere. Today is the day, finally ... I've picked and cleaned nettle leaves and have followed Hugh Fearnley-Whittingstall's recipe.
My French sorrel is growing well and that will be next now that I've taken my large stewpot out of the cupboard.
Saturday, 2 May 2020
Life in the Time of Corona
This post covers January 2020 until, possibly, now ... It is the time
of Corona. It almost harks back to Gabriel Garcia Marquez and the idea
of magical reality, where everyday life is carried on beneath the the
all-enveloping veil of an existence beyond reason.
January began with both Pauline and I having curious dry non-productive coughs that lasted for about three weeks. During the time my art class started up. Otherwise there was a general tidying up of accounts . It had been the first year on pension and with all our trips I knew I had overspent but factoring the need for the car repairs in December made the overspend a little painful! The rest of the month was quite uneventful. It was time to buy new slippers before I tripped and I discovered a new online retailer of retro dresses and petticoats that I immediately squandered money on! By and large life was continuing as it had been for the previous year. In the wider world there were rumblings about a new virus affecting Wuhan in China.
Come February and life was to change for me ... towards the end of January I had received a letter from the NHS about a further appointment for 3rd Feb in respect of the basal cell carcinoma on my nose that was diagnosed the previous June. I was then telephoned by the Dermatology Department and Kent and Canterbury Hospital to say I was now at the head of the list for minor surgery - how about the Feb 5th? There was clearly a mix-up but we resolved that I would go on the 3rd and my op would be deferred until the 12th. This was good because I had been invited to the 'Ladies who Lunch' group from Dover DC to meet for brunch on the 8th. It was good meeting up with Alison, Emma-Jane, April, Kathy and June again and I was 'incorporated' for further meetings!
Pauline took me to the hospital on the day of the op and after a 40 minute delay I was seen. In the interim another patient and his wife were complaining about a mix-up they had and the wife was writing down all the names of the staff! (As a result, after my treatment I contacted PALS to compliment the Dermatology Dept.)
Dr Jabramoski, who had seen me at the previous consultations, undertook the operation. The worst part was when anaesthetic was injected into the base of the nostril - it was extraordinarily painful. Everyone was really nice during the course of the op. I left with a large bandage over my nose and a dental cotton roll up the nostril. I took paracetamol when home, just to take the edge off the pain, which was really quite slight. After three days I was able to take the dressing off. I was surprised at the extent of the incision.
Now to COVID-19. There had been news about a novel virus causing pneumonia-like symptoms in January. The wider reference was to something no worse than 'flu. As we went through February it was clear that it was not at all like 'flu, By the end of January it had spread from China to South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Singapore. It was not until March 11 that it was formally declared a pandemic, although from the way the news developed I had taken that view a week previously. In response to a thread started in 'Just Class' by Pamela, I posted the following on 14 March in response to the briefings being given by UK Govt:
"Ever the sceptic, I fear that for the UK (I have my ideas about the US, but there's an ocean between us) the evidence is mounting that we are being hoodwinked by 'behaviourial scientists' at the behest of a government that has social engineering as its mammon. The dictum would be 'if we can convince people this is the right path, it is, whatever the outcome'. So, the idea of herd immunity ... let the virus sweep slowly across the wider community picking out the vulnerable (those who rapidly die through sepsis as their own bodies lose auto-immune control) while the rest pick up an assumed acquired immunity (something unknown in this case). (I cannot help but think of sociobiology and eugenics when I consider this). Now, we are expected not to even report symptoms of COVID-19 if it does not amount to a serious personal health issue. That will result in there being no useful information being gained about the sub-clinical spread of this disease. This seems nonsense in this age of data-acquisition on everything, but of course, 'sub-clinical' provides no obvious commercial outcomes.
At first I thought the UK government's 'nuanced' approach was good, but once the disease development (the well-known exponential) was clearly occurring in all circumstances, I found myself questioning why the UK should approach things differently and it did not take long for me to support the more universal 'lock-down' approach.
That said, the pandemic is and will continue to disrupt our lives for many months. It will cause heartache and distress for many people, taking lives and livelihoods. It will harm society, but if tackled in a truly humanitarian way, society will grow through the experience of this."
Herd Immunity - If in an epidemic the majority of the population has either suffered from a viral infection and has developed immunity or has been vaccinated, then the chance for the disease to find the minority of those uninfected/unvaccinated will reduce to zero over time, depending on the longevity of the virus outside of a host. Scientists have argued that the term is a misnomer in that 'herd immunity' applies to those that are immune, whereas those that are protected gain from the 'herd effect', which seems logical to me. The proportion of any population that needs to be immune for the herd effect to occur must depend on the infection mechanics - affected organs, incubation time, multiplication rate, auto-immune reactions and dispersal. The main point, however, is the assumption that immunity will occur.
At the time - 13th March - Patrick Vallance proposed this (and I have my suspicions that it may have been promoted so as not to contradict political advice), there was no hard evidence of immunity, or how long it might last for. It seemed to me to be a highly dangerous and reckless approach. Furthermore, Patrick Vallance stated that 60% of the population would need to get COVID-19 for 'herd immunity' to take effect. (A month earlier a "senior member of the government" told the ITV journalist Robert Peston that "If there is a pandemic, the peak will be March, April, May" and, further, that "the risk is 60% of the population getting it. With a mortality rate of perhaps just over 1%, we are looking at not far off 500,000 deaths." - source, Wikipedia) This seems to tie in with what Neil Ferguson of Imperial was saying, so I suspect that the modelling Ferguson had done had been available for some while and that accounts for Vallance's 60% figure.
Updated Section (12/05)
The basic reproduction number (rate of transmission) (R0) of COVID-19 has been put at 2-3, which with 60% immunity reduces the effective reproduction number R to between 0.8 and 1.2. However, as knowledge about COVID-19 increases, so it seems does its R0 value. One estimate is that R0 is nearer 5.7 which requires 82% immunity to take the R figure to 1 [ R = R0 x, where x is the % susceptibility].
Even while R0 was regarded as 2 - 3, it was the 500,000 deaths that made Johnson suddenly drop 'herd immunity'. Now, if a 1% mortality rate of 60% of the population results in 500,000 deaths, for 82% this would rise to over 680,000.
Clearly, the original advice was the wrong advice at the wrong time.
Now, while 'lockdown' may be easing, it appears that the virus is re-appearing in Wuhan where it is intended to antigen test the entire population of 11 million in ten days.
Another matter which continues to annoy me is the lack of tracing early on and I wonder whether this is because the Govt was still partly wedded, philosophically, to the idea of letting the virus run riot through the population to achieve the unholy grail of herd immunity. Now, in May, vaccine work is well underway and a drug used in speeding recovery in Ebola outbreaks - remdesivir - may have application for COVID-19. It can only be better than the disinfectant or hydroxychloroquine as promoted by the POTUS.
This week the issue of asymptomatic (i.e. sub-clinical) COVID-19 is coming to the fore as there is the ability to mass test for the virus antigens. It is thought that this could be 40-50% of the population. Now, if immunity is conferred through asymptomatic COVID-19, then the 60% figure is getting close and the pressure to reduce social isolation is sensible, but there is still too little known about the quality of any immunity and there is widespread talk of 2nd and 3rd waves. It would seem that both China and Singapore have experienced such. And what if R0 is 5.7? Untimely or careless cessation of controls could cause a far greater chaos.
Doubtless, I shall return to this, but how has the pandemic affected me?
Concerns about exposure to COVID-19 began in earnest in early Feb when I was asked about risk at my dentist. By March 15th I was concerned about shopping so ordered a delivery from Ocado. The earliest slot was a week later (usually it is 24 hours). That was the last online order I was able to make. Panic buying of loo paper started in early Feb in Hong Kong and by early March (reports from the 4th) people across the UK were rushing to buy loo paper, pasta and rice. Later it became eggs, flour and instant yeast as people started home baking under social isolation (lockdown). Now, on 2nd May, baking goods remain in short supply. I found two online suppliers of organic bread flour at 70% more than my usual supplier!
The country, the world, is in deep crisis both in terms of health and economy. The inequality that we all know of but ignore is being exposed by the disease. Will the world look the same after COVID-19? There is evidence that pollution has decreased and wildlife is more active as there are less people and less vehicles about which should add weight to conservation concerns. POTUS is frantically trying to blame anyone but himself for the virus; currently he has his eyes set on China (he has already blamed WHO for being China-centric). Anything or anybody to help him get re-elected. The simple fact is that in January WHO stated it was a zoonose. It is believed to have been contracted via the wet market in Wuhan, possibly from pangolin, although the coronavirus appears related to one occurring in bats. If Trump loses, there is a chance that politicians may consider less harmful ways to benefit their electorate. I may write on zoonoses later.
Pauline came to stay at the cottage mid-March, but has been going back to her flat for post and so has taken on the role of shopping. Since mid-March I have been out 3 times, twice to the farm shop as I needed compost for the greenhouse plants.
All our trips up to October have been cancelled or postponed. We are booked for W Ireland next year, and we have made a booking for Dartmoor in October when social isolation should have eased. Pamela and I are skyping, sometimes with Amanda and we've also skyped with Gia and Penny which has been very nice. My art classes are back up and running using Zoom. We had virtually no rain in April so I spent a lot of time in the garden getting things under control again and have plenty of veg growing in the greenhouse and also outside. I even managed to get the old swing seat back into operation although mice wrecked the soft furnishings which had to be replaced. I dress about every other day, primarily to give my face a rest inbetween times and have been buying things in the sales. Most of the non-food things I usually buy are available but sometimes with a slight delay. Annoyingly, a wig I ordered was lost by the courier but the wig supplier replaced it. I bought some hair clippers and am cutting my own hair for the time being.
TG matters: I tend to keep well away from all the 'trans' debates. It is no different from when I left the Angels with internecine warfare between different egos, but with the rise of the right wing in Europe, I may write something on that.
January began with both Pauline and I having curious dry non-productive coughs that lasted for about three weeks. During the time my art class started up. Otherwise there was a general tidying up of accounts . It had been the first year on pension and with all our trips I knew I had overspent but factoring the need for the car repairs in December made the overspend a little painful! The rest of the month was quite uneventful. It was time to buy new slippers before I tripped and I discovered a new online retailer of retro dresses and petticoats that I immediately squandered money on! By and large life was continuing as it had been for the previous year. In the wider world there were rumblings about a new virus affecting Wuhan in China.
Come February and life was to change for me ... towards the end of January I had received a letter from the NHS about a further appointment for 3rd Feb in respect of the basal cell carcinoma on my nose that was diagnosed the previous June. I was then telephoned by the Dermatology Department and Kent and Canterbury Hospital to say I was now at the head of the list for minor surgery - how about the Feb 5th? There was clearly a mix-up but we resolved that I would go on the 3rd and my op would be deferred until the 12th. This was good because I had been invited to the 'Ladies who Lunch' group from Dover DC to meet for brunch on the 8th. It was good meeting up with Alison, Emma-Jane, April, Kathy and June again and I was 'incorporated' for further meetings!
Pauline took me to the hospital on the day of the op and after a 40 minute delay I was seen. In the interim another patient and his wife were complaining about a mix-up they had and the wife was writing down all the names of the staff! (As a result, after my treatment I contacted PALS to compliment the Dermatology Dept.)
Dr Jabramoski, who had seen me at the previous consultations, undertook the operation. The worst part was when anaesthetic was injected into the base of the nostril - it was extraordinarily painful. Everyone was really nice during the course of the op. I left with a large bandage over my nose and a dental cotton roll up the nostril. I took paracetamol when home, just to take the edge off the pain, which was really quite slight. After three days I was able to take the dressing off. I was surprised at the extent of the incision.
I had to apply vaseline two or three times a day to the scar and after 7 days went back to have the stitches removed. Dr Jabramoski stopped by to check his handiwork and the nurse removing the stitches said I was lucky to have him as he was a very good surgeon, which pleased me. Since then I have bought some bio-oil and scar reduction serum (Boots) which I apply 2-3 times daily , massaging the whole site including the flap which is still quite enlarged as of 02/05. At the end of April I received my discharge letter, the histology showing that the whole carcinoma had been removed. I was at first a little shy of taking photos of Nikki for flickr, but I've never been particularly vain about my looks and now am not fussed. The main issue I have making sure that any blemish cover (Dermablend etc.) works under flash and doesn't draw the eye.
As my op was the day before art, I missed that and then it was half-term, so it was two weeks after the surgery before I re-attended and I was surprised that I had to point out the scar to my tutor (he's an artist ... and meant to be observant!)
Now to COVID-19. There had been news about a novel virus causing pneumonia-like symptoms in January. The wider reference was to something no worse than 'flu. As we went through February it was clear that it was not at all like 'flu, By the end of January it had spread from China to South Korea, Japan, Thailand and Singapore. It was not until March 11 that it was formally declared a pandemic, although from the way the news developed I had taken that view a week previously. In response to a thread started in 'Just Class' by Pamela, I posted the following on 14 March in response to the briefings being given by UK Govt:
"Ever the sceptic, I fear that for the UK (I have my ideas about the US, but there's an ocean between us) the evidence is mounting that we are being hoodwinked by 'behaviourial scientists' at the behest of a government that has social engineering as its mammon. The dictum would be 'if we can convince people this is the right path, it is, whatever the outcome'. So, the idea of herd immunity ... let the virus sweep slowly across the wider community picking out the vulnerable (those who rapidly die through sepsis as their own bodies lose auto-immune control) while the rest pick up an assumed acquired immunity (something unknown in this case). (I cannot help but think of sociobiology and eugenics when I consider this). Now, we are expected not to even report symptoms of COVID-19 if it does not amount to a serious personal health issue. That will result in there being no useful information being gained about the sub-clinical spread of this disease. This seems nonsense in this age of data-acquisition on everything, but of course, 'sub-clinical' provides no obvious commercial outcomes.
At first I thought the UK government's 'nuanced' approach was good, but once the disease development (the well-known exponential) was clearly occurring in all circumstances, I found myself questioning why the UK should approach things differently and it did not take long for me to support the more universal 'lock-down' approach.
That said, the pandemic is and will continue to disrupt our lives for many months. It will cause heartache and distress for many people, taking lives and livelihoods. It will harm society, but if tackled in a truly humanitarian way, society will grow through the experience of this."
Herd Immunity - If in an epidemic the majority of the population has either suffered from a viral infection and has developed immunity or has been vaccinated, then the chance for the disease to find the minority of those uninfected/unvaccinated will reduce to zero over time, depending on the longevity of the virus outside of a host. Scientists have argued that the term is a misnomer in that 'herd immunity' applies to those that are immune, whereas those that are protected gain from the 'herd effect', which seems logical to me. The proportion of any population that needs to be immune for the herd effect to occur must depend on the infection mechanics - affected organs, incubation time, multiplication rate, auto-immune reactions and dispersal. The main point, however, is the assumption that immunity will occur.
At the time - 13th March - Patrick Vallance proposed this (and I have my suspicions that it may have been promoted so as not to contradict political advice), there was no hard evidence of immunity, or how long it might last for. It seemed to me to be a highly dangerous and reckless approach. Furthermore, Patrick Vallance stated that 60% of the population would need to get COVID-19 for 'herd immunity' to take effect. (A month earlier a "senior member of the government" told the ITV journalist Robert Peston that "If there is a pandemic, the peak will be March, April, May" and, further, that "the risk is 60% of the population getting it. With a mortality rate of perhaps just over 1%, we are looking at not far off 500,000 deaths." - source, Wikipedia) This seems to tie in with what Neil Ferguson of Imperial was saying, so I suspect that the modelling Ferguson had done had been available for some while and that accounts for Vallance's 60% figure.
Updated Section (12/05)
The basic reproduction number (rate of transmission) (R0) of COVID-19 has been put at 2-3, which with 60% immunity reduces the effective reproduction number R to between 0.8 and 1.2. However, as knowledge about COVID-19 increases, so it seems does its R0 value. One estimate is that R0 is nearer 5.7 which requires 82% immunity to take the R figure to 1 [ R = R0 x, where x is the % susceptibility].
Even while R0 was regarded as 2 - 3, it was the 500,000 deaths that made Johnson suddenly drop 'herd immunity'. Now, if a 1% mortality rate of 60% of the population results in 500,000 deaths, for 82% this would rise to over 680,000.
Clearly, the original advice was the wrong advice at the wrong time.
Now, while 'lockdown' may be easing, it appears that the virus is re-appearing in Wuhan where it is intended to antigen test the entire population of 11 million in ten days.
Another matter which continues to annoy me is the lack of tracing early on and I wonder whether this is because the Govt was still partly wedded, philosophically, to the idea of letting the virus run riot through the population to achieve the unholy grail of herd immunity. Now, in May, vaccine work is well underway and a drug used in speeding recovery in Ebola outbreaks - remdesivir - may have application for COVID-19. It can only be better than the disinfectant or hydroxychloroquine as promoted by the POTUS.
This week the issue of asymptomatic (i.e. sub-clinical) COVID-19 is coming to the fore as there is the ability to mass test for the virus antigens. It is thought that this could be 40-50% of the population. Now, if immunity is conferred through asymptomatic COVID-19, then the 60% figure is getting close and the pressure to reduce social isolation is sensible, but there is still too little known about the quality of any immunity and there is widespread talk of 2nd and 3rd waves. It would seem that both China and Singapore have experienced such. And what if R0 is 5.7? Untimely or careless cessation of controls could cause a far greater chaos.
Doubtless, I shall return to this, but how has the pandemic affected me?
Concerns about exposure to COVID-19 began in earnest in early Feb when I was asked about risk at my dentist. By March 15th I was concerned about shopping so ordered a delivery from Ocado. The earliest slot was a week later (usually it is 24 hours). That was the last online order I was able to make. Panic buying of loo paper started in early Feb in Hong Kong and by early March (reports from the 4th) people across the UK were rushing to buy loo paper, pasta and rice. Later it became eggs, flour and instant yeast as people started home baking under social isolation (lockdown). Now, on 2nd May, baking goods remain in short supply. I found two online suppliers of organic bread flour at 70% more than my usual supplier!
The country, the world, is in deep crisis both in terms of health and economy. The inequality that we all know of but ignore is being exposed by the disease. Will the world look the same after COVID-19? There is evidence that pollution has decreased and wildlife is more active as there are less people and less vehicles about which should add weight to conservation concerns. POTUS is frantically trying to blame anyone but himself for the virus; currently he has his eyes set on China (he has already blamed WHO for being China-centric). Anything or anybody to help him get re-elected. The simple fact is that in January WHO stated it was a zoonose. It is believed to have been contracted via the wet market in Wuhan, possibly from pangolin, although the coronavirus appears related to one occurring in bats. If Trump loses, there is a chance that politicians may consider less harmful ways to benefit their electorate. I may write on zoonoses later.
Pauline came to stay at the cottage mid-March, but has been going back to her flat for post and so has taken on the role of shopping. Since mid-March I have been out 3 times, twice to the farm shop as I needed compost for the greenhouse plants.
All our trips up to October have been cancelled or postponed. We are booked for W Ireland next year, and we have made a booking for Dartmoor in October when social isolation should have eased. Pamela and I are skyping, sometimes with Amanda and we've also skyped with Gia and Penny which has been very nice. My art classes are back up and running using Zoom. We had virtually no rain in April so I spent a lot of time in the garden getting things under control again and have plenty of veg growing in the greenhouse and also outside. I even managed to get the old swing seat back into operation although mice wrecked the soft furnishings which had to be replaced. I dress about every other day, primarily to give my face a rest inbetween times and have been buying things in the sales. Most of the non-food things I usually buy are available but sometimes with a slight delay. Annoyingly, a wig I ordered was lost by the courier but the wig supplier replaced it. I bought some hair clippers and am cutting my own hair for the time being.
TG matters: I tend to keep well away from all the 'trans' debates. It is no different from when I left the Angels with internecine warfare between different egos, but with the rise of the right wing in Europe, I may write something on that.
Friday, 1 May 2020
December 2019
The short days were occupied with painting and packing for Ireland. I did not dress much for pictures. On the 17th we left for Holyhead, visiting Doris and then Barbara's grave on the way, and arrived at Pamela and Mary's on the 18th after stopping in the rain at Monasterboice on the way. Pauline had a cough which she gave to me. We realised that a headlamp bulb had failed and on the 19th drove to the local Renault dealership where they replaced not one but three lamps! We then went down the coast to Annagassan and back via Dromiskin.On the 20th Pauline and I drove up into the Mournes to the Spelga Reservoir and then had a walk at the Silent Valley Reservoir.
It is somewhere to go to for a long walk. In the evening I dressed and we went to the Crowne Plaza which was quite crowded which affected the ambience. My little camera decided to play up and we just got the one picture:
On the 21st, Pauline and I drove to see the Proleek Dolmen and then visited 'my' bridge at Ravensdale before heading back via the River Big valley between Carrabane and Slieve Foye. By the 22nd Pamela had finished work and we took some pictures by the Christmas tree after she had returned from a quick shopping trip to Newry. The 23rd was our time to 'nip off', to Drogheda for shopping and visiting St Peter's Church to see St Oliver Plunkett's shrine and head! (At Aachen, earlier in the year we had seen Charlemagne's arm!) On the way back we stopped again at Monasterboice as the weather was much better. The high cross is a marvel. Later, reading about how the sculptors were quite likely to have come from the Mediterranean, I considered the 'cat-headed' snakes (Ireland never had snakes) and concluded that they were probably horned vipers, reinforcing the Mediterranean connection. This was conveyed to a writer who had made a good study of such symbology and he did not disagree.
On the 24th we stayed in and the fun began with photos and a Christmas Interview. The maids were ready on Christmas DayMore pictures were taken on the 26th and on the 27th I drove Pamela into Dundalk for her photos, before the inevitable drive to Dublin and the ferry.
The New Year was seen in quietly as we were both suffering slightly with a cough. Did this presage the time of Corona?
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